Say you stroll right into a watch store in 1967 useless set on shopping for a Rolex. The one you fancy is the dive watch, the one which’s informal with the black bezel, easy black dial with no date, and that metal bracelet. Leather-based straps are so ’50s. You notice the watch, it’s known as the Submariner, and also you ask how a lot it prices. “$225,” you hear from the salesperson – no small sum but in addition not checking account shattering. So that you pull the set off. You don’t essentially understand it on today, however you’ve simply emerged from the shop with a ref. 5513, two-line Submariner – a watch that won’t solely outlive you, however may also serve to be as a lot a wrist companion as it’s a legit appreciating funding piece.
Everyone knows that watches have turn into a forex of their very own over the past decade or so, going from objects of fascination or assortment to these of commerce. For a lot of the 2010s, metal Rolex received you a greater return than the literal inventory market. However that wasn’t a part of the calculus within the Nineteen Sixties. The truth is, it took the higher a part of 4 many years for these unique metal sport fashions just like the early Submariners to achieve their funding potential.
The Rolex Submariner ref. 5513.
Within the early aughts, it was mainly solely classic watches – on this case, classic Rolex – which represented worth. They have been the kinds of items that made you kick your self for not shopping for an entire retailer’s price of Daytonas within the ’60s and ’70s so you could possibly money in in 2014. Hindsight is 20/20, in fact, however certainly we’d all get in that time machine.
What’s fascinating to look at is the final 4 many years or so, and the way the Submariner each classic and trendy has risen in worth each new and pre-owned. For instance, utilizing the $225 mannequin as a comparability level, a brand new Rolex Submariner (adjusted for inflation) ought to value about $2,000. But it surely doesn’t. The truth is, it goes for about $7,000 greater than that. However earlier than we go there, let’s see how costs have modified over time.
Even in 1967, that $225 quantity was not consultant of what we think about to be a luxurious watch. And that’s as a result of a Rolex Submariner was not, in actual fact, a luxurious watch. It was a instrument watch within the realest sense of the phrase – a look ahead to diving, and swimming, a watch actually issued to varied navy outfits throughout the globe. It was a watch to place via its paces – one you could possibly get at a pleasant low cost should you have been a service member.
It’s additionally vital to keep in mind that, in 1967, there have been solely mechanical watches. There was nothing digital or quartz at scale. This allowed mechanical timepieces to take a seat at a comparatively low worth level because the business thrived. After which everyone knows concerning the Quartz Disaster, when manufacturers like Seiko introduced battery-powered, extremely correct, and decidedly inexpensive timepieces to market, thus undercutting and successfully destroying the Swiss watch business.
When the mud settled, mechanical watches morphed from antiquity to one thing particular. You don’t want to alter the battery – this factor will final ceaselessly. It is best to pay a premium for that, a premium for the posh that’s the mechanical watch – the posh watch.
It’s within the mid-Nineteen Eighties that we see the Submariner soar as much as that four-figure $1,000 mark, after which double to $2,000 within the early ’90s after which greater than double once more as we attain the tip of the aughts and the tip of the aluminum-bezel, stamped-clasp Submariner period. A few of this has to do with a shift in design. The previous matte dials with painted markers have been changed with shiny dials and utilized markers with white gold surrounds. A Submariner successfully elevated 4x in worth in a decade after which doubled in worth in those who adopted. However that’s the story of the ref. 5513s and the 14060s – watches we now think about to be classic or neo-vintage.
The Rolex Submariner ref. 14060.
Then got here 2012, the yr that the primary no-date ceramic Submariner ref. 114060 was launched. This got here two years after the Submariner Date received the ceramic therapy. However the no-date is the OG, the true Submariner. In contrast to the ref. 5513 and 14060, this watch solely got here in a four-line configuration whereas classic Subs could possibly be present in two or four-line choices. A watch that was beforehand priced between $4,000 and $5,000 was abruptly now $7,100.
Very similar to the shift from instrument watch to luxurious that we noticed within the ’80s, so too was this a leveling up of what luxurious meant. On this case, it meant a ceramic bezel full of platinum versus painted aluminum. And it meant a solidly constructed bracelet with a totally milled-out clasp with an unparalleled adjustment system. This was the brand new basis for the model’s most iconic watch.
Rolex Submariner ref. 114060.
Between 2012 and 2020, the worth of a no-date Submariner at retail rose $800, basically rising to maintain up with inflation. After which the COVID-19 pandemic hit and Rolex ceased elevating costs – nicely form of.
And I say that as a result of it was in 2020 that Rolex up to date the Submariner, releasing the brand new 41mm ref. 124060 with its larger case and wider lugs, however finally a sleeker design. That watch carried a price ticket of $8,100. And the worth maintained in 2020, and 2021.
The 41mm Rolex Submariner ref. 124060.
February 2022 marked Rolex’s return to the worth improve sport. Inflation was nonetheless very a lot a factor (because it stays at this time) and changes have been wanted to satisfy it. The consequence was a ten.5 % hike to $8,950. In lower than two years, the Submariner had elevated in worth greater than its predecessor did in eight. Right now you should buy one new for $9,150, so issues have fortunately slowed again all the way down to regular a bit.
What’s price noting is that, whereas Rolex’s 10.5% improve appears gargantuan – in the long term the worth of a no-date Submariner from 2013 to at this time is sort of fully in-line with inflation – one thing that would not be stated about Rolex pricing from 1975 to, say, 1986.
However the extra fascinating factor to look at throughout the interval of 2012 to the current day is how the pre-owned market tracked alongside these new watches. Wanting again at listings for pre-owned Rolex “no-date” Submariners, it turns into clear that 2013 serves as a pivotal yr in trendy watch accumulating and buying. It’s when a used watch stopped being a used watch and abruptly grew to become extra useful than one contemporary off the lot.
A rise in social media consideration and the proliferation of content material from retailers equivalent to Hodinkee turned watches from a little bit of mechanical esoterica into one thing much more mainstream. It was now not simply classic metal Rolex that amounted to investable horology. The trendy assortment started garnering the identical type of consideration.
It was round this time that watches additionally grew to become a lot tougher to buy at retail as demand started to soar, therefore the worth disparity. And we’re speaking about $4,000 premiums, the place a pre-owned trendy Submariner ref.114060 may fetch $12,000 in 2013, and upwards of $16,000 between 2015 and 2021 for a ref. 114060 (and $15,000 for the newer mannequin).
Within the final yr or so, we’ve actually seen these costs come all the way down to earth a bit as a consequence of financial elements. And we’ve heard from our buddies on the AD degree that they’ve seen an inflow of product enter their shops over the past a number of months than they’ve in years. Now this doesn’t make it that a lot simpler to purchase a 124060 Submariner at retail at this time, but it surely does clarify why costs have come all the way down to round $13.5k (the same $4k premium that we noticed a decade in the past).
Then there’s Licensed Pre-Owned – a phenomenon began by the Crown final yr. Now, the brand new ref. 124060 is just not fairly sufficiently old to qualify for the CPO program however listings for the ref. 114060 presently sit at round $14, 5000 – which is $5,400 greater than the fashionable mannequin at retail, and $6,600 greater than the 114060 was at retail in 2020.
Will probably be fascinating to look at the worth on the open market of the Submariner because it compares to CPO costs and to likewise monitor the fixed will increase of the Submariner at retail. It appears sure that each are on monitor to satisfy someplace close to a center – until costs on the secondary market skyrocket as soon as extra.
Going again to our $225 Rolex Submariner ref. 5513 from 1967 nonetheless, you will discover these in the marketplace at this time nonetheless going robust at upwards of $20,000, which represents successfully a 1,000 % improve in worth when accounting for inflation. It could take 40 years of context for us to completely understand the worth of a contemporary Submariner, however current historical past has proven that it continues to be a secure guess.
